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Bundesbank: Nemčiji ob eskalaciji trgovinske vojne z ZDA grozita še dve leti recesije Frankfurt
06.06.2025, 13:16
Največjemu evropskemu gospodarstvu grozita še dve leti recesije, če se bo trgovinska vojna z ZDA zaostrila, je opozorila nemška centralna banka Bundesbank. Po najslabšem scenariju bi se nemški bruto domači proizvod (BDP) letos skrčil za 0,5 odstotka, prihodnje leto pa za 0,2 odstotka***
Če bodo carine, s katerimi je EU zagrozil ameriški predsednik Donald Trump, od julija v celoti veljale in se bo EU odzvala s protiukrepi, bi se Nemčija po ocenah Bundesbank k rasti vrnila šele leta 2027, ko naj bi se BDP okrepil za odstotek, napovedi Bundesbank povzema francoska tiskovna agencija AFP.
Tradicionalni motor rasti območja z evrom v zadnjih dveh letih beležil nazadovanje gospodarske dejavnosti. Nemški BDP se je skrčil zaradi upada proizvodnje in naraščajočih cen energije, je bilo pa upanje, da bo gospodarstvo letos vendarle okrevalo, po poročanju AFP veliko.
Trump je v začetku aprila EU zagrozil z 20-odstotnimi carinami, nato jih je začasno zamrznil, da bi omogočil pogajanja za dosego dogovora. Pred kratkim je dejal, da bodo carine za EU 50-odstotne, saj da so pogajanja z unijo zastala, a je tudi ta ukrep odložil.
Trumpova carinska politika bo izvozno naravnano Nemčijo močno prizadela, je danes izpostavila Bundesbank. Kot so zapisali v centralni banki, so bile namreč ZDA leta 2024 glavna trgovinska partnerica Nemčije.
Poleg najslabšega scenarija je Bundesbank objavila tudi osnovno projekcijo rasti. Ta predvideva, da bo imela ameriška trgovinska politika zmernejši vpliv na Nemčijo, saj bo gospodarstvo podpiralo načrtovano povečanje porabe za infrastrukturo in obrambo, kot predlaga vlada pod vodstvom novega kanclerja Friedricha Merza.
Po teh napovedih bi gospodarstvo letos stagniralo, preden bi se leta 2026 okrepilo za 0,7 odstotka in nato leta 2027 za 1,2 odstotka.
Tudi nemška vlada in številni ekonomski inštituti so svoje napovedi rasti za letos poslabšali in pričakujejo stagnacijo. Razlog so pripisali predvsem Trumpovi trgovinski vojni.
If US President Donald Trump\'s tariffs were to be implemented in full from July and the EU were to retaliate, then German output would decline 0.5 percent this year and 0.2 percent in 2026, the Bundesbank forecast.
This would be due to a \"marked decline in exports and significant uncertainty weighing on investment,\" it said.
There would be a return to growth in 2027, with a rebound of one percent, it said.
The eurozone\'s traditional growth engine has already contracted for the past two years due to a manufacturing slump and surging energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, but hopes had been high for a modest recovery from this year.
When Trump unveiled his \"Liberation Day\" tariffs in early April, he threatened to hit the European Union with a 20-percent levy over its hefty surplus in goods traded with the United States.
He then paused those higher rates until July to allow for talks to try to reach a deal. More recently he said he would slap the EU with a 50-percent tariff rate as negotiations stalled -- but has also delayed that measure.
The bloc still faces a \"baseline\" 10-percent tariff rate on all its exports to the United States, as well as higher levies on some specific sectors.
Trump\'s tariff blitz stands to hit export power Germany hard, as the United States was Germany\'s top trading partner in 2024, receiving huge quantities of its cars, pharmaceuticals and machinery.
As well as a worse-case scenario, the Bundesbank also released \"baseline\" growth projections.
This envisages US trade policy having a more moderate impact on Germany as new Chancellor Friedrich Merz\'s planned spending surge on infrastructure and defence helps support the economy.
Under these forecasts, the economy would stagnate this year before expanding 0.7 percent in 2026 and then 1.2 percent in 2027.
The German government and many economic institutes have already slashed their growth forecasts for this year to zero, citing the uncertainty triggered by Trump\'s trade war. (konec)zc/jes STA094 2025-06-06/13:15
Če bodo carine, s katerimi je EU zagrozil ameriški predsednik Donald Trump, od julija v celoti veljale in se bo EU odzvala s protiukrepi, bi se Nemčija po ocenah Bundesbank k rasti vrnila šele leta 2027, ko naj bi se BDP okrepil za odstotek, napovedi Bundesbank povzema francoska tiskovna agencija AFP.
Tradicionalni motor rasti območja z evrom v zadnjih dveh letih beležil nazadovanje gospodarske dejavnosti. Nemški BDP se je skrčil zaradi upada proizvodnje in naraščajočih cen energije, je bilo pa upanje, da bo gospodarstvo letos vendarle okrevalo, po poročanju AFP veliko.
Trump je v začetku aprila EU zagrozil z 20-odstotnimi carinami, nato jih je začasno zamrznil, da bi omogočil pogajanja za dosego dogovora. Pred kratkim je dejal, da bodo carine za EU 50-odstotne, saj da so pogajanja z unijo zastala, a je tudi ta ukrep odložil.
Trumpova carinska politika bo izvozno naravnano Nemčijo močno prizadela, je danes izpostavila Bundesbank. Kot so zapisali v centralni banki, so bile namreč ZDA leta 2024 glavna trgovinska partnerica Nemčije.
Poleg najslabšega scenarija je Bundesbank objavila tudi osnovno projekcijo rasti. Ta predvideva, da bo imela ameriška trgovinska politika zmernejši vpliv na Nemčijo, saj bo gospodarstvo podpiralo načrtovano povečanje porabe za infrastrukturo in obrambo, kot predlaga vlada pod vodstvom novega kanclerja Friedricha Merza.
Po teh napovedih bi gospodarstvo letos stagniralo, preden bi se leta 2026 okrepilo za 0,7 odstotka in nato leta 2027 za 1,2 odstotka.
Tudi nemška vlada in številni ekonomski inštituti so svoje napovedi rasti za letos poslabšali in pričakujejo stagnacijo. Razlog so pripisali predvsem Trumpovi trgovinski vojni.
If US President Donald Trump\'s tariffs were to be implemented in full from July and the EU were to retaliate, then German output would decline 0.5 percent this year and 0.2 percent in 2026, the Bundesbank forecast.
This would be due to a \"marked decline in exports and significant uncertainty weighing on investment,\" it said.
There would be a return to growth in 2027, with a rebound of one percent, it said.
The eurozone\'s traditional growth engine has already contracted for the past two years due to a manufacturing slump and surging energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, but hopes had been high for a modest recovery from this year.
When Trump unveiled his \"Liberation Day\" tariffs in early April, he threatened to hit the European Union with a 20-percent levy over its hefty surplus in goods traded with the United States.
He then paused those higher rates until July to allow for talks to try to reach a deal. More recently he said he would slap the EU with a 50-percent tariff rate as negotiations stalled -- but has also delayed that measure.
The bloc still faces a \"baseline\" 10-percent tariff rate on all its exports to the United States, as well as higher levies on some specific sectors.
Trump\'s tariff blitz stands to hit export power Germany hard, as the United States was Germany\'s top trading partner in 2024, receiving huge quantities of its cars, pharmaceuticals and machinery.
As well as a worse-case scenario, the Bundesbank also released \"baseline\" growth projections.
This envisages US trade policy having a more moderate impact on Germany as new Chancellor Friedrich Merz\'s planned spending surge on infrastructure and defence helps support the economy.
Under these forecasts, the economy would stagnate this year before expanding 0.7 percent in 2026 and then 1.2 percent in 2027.
The German government and many economic institutes have already slashed their growth forecasts for this year to zero, citing the uncertainty triggered by Trump\'s trade war. (konec)zc/jes STA094 2025-06-06/13:15